I have signed a full time new grad software engineering offer from Roblox starting Sep 24 2024. I would like to estimate the probability that the offer is rescinded. Because base rates are so low, I'm doing this weird thing to amplify the probabilities.

Resolves YES if Roblox rescinds my job offer by Sep 24 2024.

Resolves NO if Roblox does not rescind my job offer by Sep 24 2024 AND I roll a d10 and roll a 1. Resolves N/A if I roll any other number.

I care about gaining a good estimate from this, so will be boosting it. Also, happy to answer any questions :).

(It's not exactly 10x, but because I expect P(rescind) << P(not rescind) it should be approximately that).