Google' Gemini Nano is apparently small enough to fit on a mobile device, which implies that it's possible to extract out the weights of the model by looking at the storage of the mobile device.
This market resolves to YES if someone makes the weights of Gemini Nano publically available and "usable", ie you can't just upload the encrypted weights, the data has to be in a form where you can run inference with them.
For a YES resolution, it is also required that google themselves does not open-source the weights (like mistral) and that the weights do not get leaked (like llama).
This market will resolve NO at the end of 2024 if nobody has been able to run Gemini Nano after extracting the weights from a phone/tablet/etc. if it's been done but the weights haven't been made publicly available, this market will resolve NO.
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I'm arbitraging with https://manifold.markets/YafahEdelman/will-gemini-nanos-weights-be-public-b54626ab4659 because it seems like Google encrypted the weights, and while they might change their mind, that certainly looks like they don't want to release them. https://twitter.com/tarantulae/status/1733263855818559774
@PlasmaPower dangerous arbitrage attempt:
For a YES resolution, it is also required that google themselves does not open-source the weights (like mistral) and that the weights do not get leaked (like llama).
@FaulSname Yes, my bet is that since they went to a significant amount of work to encrypt the weights, they won't change their mind in the year and release them. Plus people might extract them anyways before Google has an opportunity to change their mind.
@PlasmaPower Yes that's correct, "open source" in the title does not refer to licensing. "open-source" seemed the most concise way to convey "make publicly available in a relatively easy-to-use format", I'm happy to modify the wording if there are suggestions