On the Lex Fridman podcast with Elon musk (episode 200), around 2h22m Elon says that Optimus will be able to pick up a needle and a thread and thread the needle just by looking and he says it's "maybe a year" away.
This will resolve YES if Optimus (or a later version of the Optimus robot) is able to consistently thread a needle just by looking at the thread and the needle.
It will resolve NO if there is no proof of this being possible by that date.
[Lex Fridman Podcast] #400 – Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity #lexFridmanPodcast
https://podcastaddict.com/lex-fridman-podcast/episode/166602187 via @PodcastAddict
https://twitter.com/Tesla_Optimus/status/1734756150137225501?t=xdbO-ipAxnub1ueUzka9jQ&s=19
Optimus update, no increase in finger dexterity besides picking up an egg and better fingerboard force feedback
@TheBayesian agreed, hence the market. Although I'm surprised that there's not a whole range of "outlandish predictions by Musk" given how frequently he makes them. I'd make a million of them if I had the Mana