Will "most eSports be dominated by people with paralysis [by August 2034]"
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In the Lex Fridman Podcast #438
https://podcastaddict.com/lex-fridman-podcast/episode/180306714, around 4h39m30s, Bliss Chapman (Brain Interface Software Lead at Neuralink) makes the claim in this markets title. Let's see if it comes true.
I'll take "dominate" to mean a majority of competition winners in a majority of top eSports competitions are unable to use their arms to control the computer due to paralysis. I'll look at whatever the top competitive eSports are at the time, but it'll likely be real time strategy (LoL, Dota, etc) and FPS games (CSGO, valorant, etc).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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