Will "The Merge" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
Will "The Merge" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
7
170Ṁ2832030
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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This market is part of a series of markets realizing a prediction from footnote 7 of this ACX post, regarding the projects in this list.
This market resolves "YES" if the Merge is widely considered to be a scam by 2030.
I will resolve the market according to my judgement, following the principle laid out by Scott: Being a scam "... doesn’t mean they won’t fail, or go down in value, or that you can never write a sentence accusing them of being bad in some way, just that they’re not going to rug-pull anyone or collapse in a way they claimed there was no chance they could do".
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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