Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2024?

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Ṁ2201

Dec 31

21%

chance

ALL

This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2024.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Model says NO for August:

I can't get historical data without signing up for Kraken, so I use this:

Tether USDt USD (USDT-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

Things may happen to break Tether:

Tether and sanctions: what’s coming for Paolo’s beautiful launderette – Amy Castor

But an extrapolation says NO for August:

57 2024-07-28 0.999127

58 2024-07-29 0.999106

59 2024-07-30 0.999031

60 2024-07-31 0.998890

61 2024-08-01 0.998919

Model says NO for 2024:

215 2025-01-02 0.998897

216 2025-01-03 0.999039

217 2025-01-04 0.999057

218 2025-01-05 0.999054

219 2025-01-06 0.999048

I'll stick to YES for now.

Bet Yes because I've once again read a few critical articles about Tether backing. But one of them mentioned that Madoffs fraud took 17 years to unravel. Tether is not that old yet.

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