Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2024?
Plus
24
Ṁ3292Dec 31
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Model says NO for August:
I can't get historical data without signing up for Kraken, so I use this:
Tether USDt USD (USDT-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance
Things may happen to break Tether:
Tether and sanctions: what’s coming for Paolo’s beautiful launderette – Amy Castor
But an extrapolation says NO for August:
57 2024-07-28 0.999127
58 2024-07-29 0.999106
59 2024-07-30 0.999031
60 2024-07-31 0.998890
61 2024-08-01 0.998919
Model says NO for 2024:
215 2025-01-02 0.998897
216 2025-01-03 0.999039
217 2025-01-04 0.999057
218 2025-01-05 0.999054
219 2025-01-06 0.999048
I'll stick to YES for now.
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