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Looking at the Forecast at 12:30 Central Time, looks like the Republicans are expected to hold 230 seats.

This is a market where I feel unusually safe placing limit orders because it's hard to think of the type of news that would really impact my confidence.

I feel like I see a lot of comments saying they think 538 predictions are wrong, but not explaining why. This market is a test to see if people think in general that 538 has a bias.

@BoltonBailey in my case it's not 538, it's polling as a tool in general. By nature it's heavily influenced by backwards poll accuracy; polling response rates are ridiculously low, to the point where the lizardman constant swamps a lot of the signal. In political polling in particular you see one tribe which is much less likely to answer polls than the other.

Pollsters counter this with fudge factors in order to try to account for that, but the fudge factors are based on prior poll results as compared to the events they tried to predict; in this past 2 years I believe the underlying likelihood of answering a pollster has shifted enough that all the fudge factors are severely out of date, in the direction of under-predicting red tribe success.

Therefore I'm pretty sure that whatever 538 predicts will be skewed blue. Not because they're not trying to be accurate, but because of the nature of their knowledge and their models.