Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October?
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Ṁ4811resolved Sep 15
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YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum mainnet merge happens before the beginning of October.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Gigacasting from your own link...
Nonetheless, many factors may change that timeframe; the developers made clear that the timing is an estimate and nothing is finalized yet.
@PeterBorah one of my markets you might be interested in https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-major-ethereum-testnet-have
The shadow forks continue to go off without a hitch, and today's All Core Devs set a target for merging Ropsten on June 8. People seem to be inferring that means an "all goes well" target for mainnet somewhere around mid-August. The difficulty bomb gets bad around that time too, so there's some incentive to hit that target.
Delays are more the norm than the exception in crypto projects of this scale, but it feels like we're in the home stretch, and 30% feels too low.
If Manifold is more accurate than Polymarket, why doesn't Polymarket correct itself? Just because Polymarket is built on Polygon doesn't bias it towards being optimistic about Ethereum; if anything, it would be biased towards pessimism about Ethereum, since Ethereum doing so well would cause the price and relevance of Polygon to plummet.
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