Who will win the 2023 Speed Chess Championship?
resolved Sep 22
Magnus Carlsen
Hikaru Nakamura
Alireza Firouzja
Ding Liren
Pragg R
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Fabiano Caruana
Nihal Sarin
Wesley So
Levon Aronian
Dommaraju Gukesh
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Dmitry Andreikin
Alexey Sarana
Ian Nepomniachi

Who will win the Coinbase 2023 Speed Chess Championship?

See bracket here.

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This was fun folks, thanks for playing!

sold Ṁ2 of Hikaru Nakamura YES

@BoltonBailey loved it, even though I'm apparently net -4M

bought Ṁ31 of Magnus Carlsen YES


bought Ṁ10,000 of Magnus Carlsen YES

Oof he agreed to a draw in a winning position in a must win game?

Ok I'm mistaken, Magnus was winning.

bought Ṁ200 of Magnus Carlsen YES

Lol just realized reason I was behind on all the trades is the YouTube stream is behind the twitch one

bought Ṁ1,000 of Magnus Carlsen YES

@EliLifland The chess.com live board seems faster

bought Ṁ1,100 of Magnus Carlsen YES

@BoltonBailey Did t know that existed lol

bought Ṁ100 of Hikaru Nakamura YES

That last 5+1 game was wild

25% is way off imo. Magnus might win but it will come down to the wire. That's my prediction. I still give it around 50/50

bought Ṁ10 of Hikaru Nakamura YES

Drinking on a Friday in Europe and just realised my limit order got filled and I now have ~200 mana on Hikaru

Nervous Sponge Bob GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants
bought Ṁ100 of Hikaru Nakamura YES

Lag on the livestream making this interesting

bought Ṁ25 of Maxime Vachier-Lagrave YES

MVL is playing Hikaru close today. He's +1 going into the bullet segment. Bullet is Hikaru's best category and where he usually runs up the score, but MVL has been good in the time scrambles so far.

This market could very well get upended.

sold Ṁ0 of Maxime Vachier-Lagrave YES

@JohnKossa Would have been cool

bought Ṁ5 of Hikaru Nakamura YES

I know Magnus looked dominant vs Wesley, but I still think 40% is too low for Hikaru. They are 2 for 2 and the ones Magnus won were a bit longer ago. But it really could go either way.

bought Ṁ10 of Nihal Sarin NO

@SophusCorry He still has to win the semifinals today, but yes.

bought Ṁ500 of Magnus Carlsen YES

@SophusCorry 2 for 2? In H2H I believe they're 2-1, though Magnus did lose to MVL who lost to Hikaru once. Other things to keep in mind are Magnus beat Hikaru by bigger margins than Hikaru beat Magnus, and they had a very close match in 1+0 bullet chess championship which Hikaru probably has a bigger edge in than the SCC format

@EliLifland yeah I mean in head to head it's two for one but I don't see how it makes magnus' record better that he got kicked out by MVL.

I have bet most of my mana on hikaru right now but I do agree that Magnus won't go down without a fight. I have said "never bet against Magnus" in the past so maybe I should listen to myself. Time will tell..

@SophusCorry I still win more mana overall on Hikaru than Magnus as well. We shall see soon!

Markets for the two leaders making the finals

bought Ṁ500 of Alireza Firouzja NO

Wesley wins, Alireza is out. What a match... Anyone who thought this wouldn't be close was very mistaken.

bought Ṁ2 of Wesley So YES

So vs Firouzja really coming down to the wire with Armageddon..

bought Ṁ100 of Ding Liren NO

Ding seems to have dropped out and replaced with Nepo?

bought Ṁ3 of Other YES

Dmitry Andreikin is doing very well against Firouzja right now.