Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s?
Basic
13
Ṁ314
2030
74%
Hyperion
62%
Old Man's War
62%
Kushiel's Dart
56%
Shards of Honor
55%
Children of Blood and Bone
50%
The Mote in God's Eye
50%
The Forever War
50%
Blindsight
46%
The Lies of Locke Lamora
46%
A Fire Upon the Deep
44%
Permutation City
43%
Consider Phlebas
43%
The Diamond Age
43%
Revelation Space
41%
The Way of Kings
41%
Ancillary Justice
41%
The Blade Itself
41%
Assassin's Apprentice
41%
The Final Empire
37%
The Left Hand of Darkness

The criteria here are somewhat subjective - I will make the final determination so I will not bet. Some important considerations will be:

  • Does the movie/series have the same title as the book or the series of books to which the book belongs?

  • Are most of the major characters named the same?

  • Is the plot roughly the same?

Sometimes plots are changed / characters are combined in the adaptation process, but that alone isn't enough to make something "not an adaption"

Feel free to add multiple books from a series, but note that if a TV or movie series is covering a book series one book at a time, I will only resolve YES if I think the series can be said to have adapted the particular book.

FAQ:

I will resolve adaptations YES, even if they were adapted before this market was released.

It doesn't matter if it's animated or if the animation or writing is partly or completely AI-generated, but it does have to be on the level of quality so that I feel like I am watching a Hollywood movie or major-streaming-platform show, rather than a piece of experimental cinema.

The adaptation also has to be legally licensed by the copyright holder and available to the public for consumption.

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I think that if Blindsight ever got adapted there would maybe be a few articles about the time Peter Watts advocated for the murder of police officers.

Hyperion

Nice to see this one at the top, both because I think I'd like to see it, and also because it seems like a good candidate - seems very adaptable and apparently Bradley Cooper is on board.

How does it resolve if a high-quality AI-generated adaptation is created? Like here: https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=Y2FsZGVya25pZ2h0

@calderknight If it is "comparable to a big-budget studio film" then that would be a YES. It doesn't matter if it's animated or if the animation or writing is partly or completely AI-generated, but it does have to be on the level of quality so that I feel like I am watching a Hollywood movie, rather than a piece of experimental cinema.

@BoltonBailey presumably also "official" i.e. granted license by the copyright holder?

@Stralor Yeah I guess that is what I'm going for, not looking to incentivize illegal jank productions by Manifold users here. I'll add that to the criteria, someone tell me if they think that's unfair.

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