Resolves to BTC/USD at random time
7
370Ṁ1383
resolved Nov 8
Resolved
75k

Resolves to the price of bitcoin, as given by coinmarketcap, at the time of the first Bitcoin block after market open to end with "0000". Close date to be extended indefinitely.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ3
2Ṁ2
3Ṁ0
Sort by:

Is anyone actually checking that there have been no blocks that meet this criteria since this market was created?

@SaviorofPlant I've tried searching for these hashes by last 4 hexdigits in the various blockchain trackers and haven't found an easy way. Best I got was some data dumps here and then analyzing it locally, but downloading all those files seemed too tedious.

I was expecting the market creator or someone else to have a script or something to trigger the resolution.

@deagol Uhh, admittedly I haven't been running such a script.

@BoltonBailey Hilariously though, I just wrote and ran one today, and it seems that the most recent block ending in 0000 was ... yesterday

@BoltonBailey Crazy, a day earlier and it would have been before this massive election bounce. Nearest price on CMC I can find for this time $74,475.20, let me know if my calculations are wrong before I resolve.

opened a Ṁ1 LOWER at 75% order

@BoltonBailey Wow, that's crazy! I've been checking semi-manually every day importing the data dumps linked above into Excel, and this block is not in the dump yet as its timestamp is for today (UTC), so I missed it this morning when I checked.

Now, I get a different price, unless I'm having a timezone conversion brain fart. I see 75198.55 yesterday @10:50 PM UTC-4 (my local timezone) = today 2:50 AM UTC (the block time is 2:51:09).

I think after all this microtrading I made zero mana lol 😂

@deagol I wasn't accounting for timezones, so you're probably right

@BoltonBailey that point in the chart will rolloff in about 20 min, and looking at the closest in the 7D chart it looks different... anyway. Thanks, I had fun trying to keep up with the price for peanuts haha.

@BoltonBailey that scale though 😅 (does it look the same to you?)

Does someone know what is the probability of any given block to end with "0000"?

@roma The ending bytes should be approximately random, so 1 in 65536

@BoltonBailey Right 🤦 , not sure what got me confused back then

@BoltonBailey so at 6 blocks/h we should see this happen about every 15 months on average, right? Is there a block tracking site with an easy way to lookup past blocks with this hash ending? I tried a few with no luck.

predictedLOWER

Fun fact: 100000 minutes is roughly 69 days.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules