In a hypothetical election where every non-tossup state goes as expected, will the
Democratic candidate reach 270?
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Below is a 270towin.com map which I have created showing the partisan lean status of various states and districts for the 2024 election.
This market resolves YES if, when we take the total number of electoral college votes from:
Every state or district labeled as "Safe", "Likely", or "Leans" blue in the map (226 votes)
Every state of the 7 marked as "Toss-up" in the above map (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) in which the democratic party candidate eventually wins in the election
the total adds up to 270 or more electoral votes. In other words, it resolves YES if the democratic candidate gets at least 44 votes from the 7 "Toss-up" states.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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