Fatal attack preventable by TSA shoe screening before 2030?
10
100Ṁ2972029
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
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Travelers will now be allowed to keep their shoes on during airport checkpoints in the US.
This question asks whether, before 2030, there will be any death resulting from an attack that credibly would not have been possible or feasible if TSA shoe screening were still in place. In other words, it will have to be an attack carried out:
On a flight or within the secure area of an airport
That results in the death of someone other than the attacker
Carried out using a weapon that was smuggled through security in a shoe
That would have been detected if that shoe had done through the standard TSA screening process prior to 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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