Will Richard Hanania post a left-leaning article about gender issues in 2023?
resolved Jan 4


Richard Hanania is a contrarian blogger, many of whose opinions, especially on gender, I would characterize as right-wing. Recently he has surprised me with a number of more left-leaning articles, for example:

The underlying reason seems to be that RH is fundamentally a contrarian. He is surrounded by more right-wingers now than he used to be, so he finds himself disagreeing with them.

Nonetheless, RH's opinions on gender issues seem very, very un-left. (I hesitate even to say "traditional" -- it's hard to imagine writing like this from the pre-1960s West, or China at any time in its history...) Will he change his mind?

Resolution criteria: This is entirely subjective. When RH posts on gender I will try to determine if I feel it leans more left or right; if any one gender article this year leans more left on balance, I will resolve YES, otherwise NO. Since this is subjective, feel free to try to persuade me in the comments.

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📢Resolved to YES per proof in comments

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I think his latest post is a clear yes.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 87%

@RobertCousineau is surrogacy a gender issue?

I sold my no shares on the dip - I think this market has become silly.

predicted YES

@GCS I'm not up on the debate but he is definitely framing it as such.

I'd also say from first principles, yes. Only women can become surrogates with current technology, and only women would get significant benefit/costs from surrogacy specifically (e.g. a women benefits from not having to be pregnant/costs from having to be (or vice versa if someone weirdly loves pregnancy)).

@RobertCousineau I don't think being pro-surrogacy is a clearly left wing position. The left is pretty split on it. On one side you have liberals who support it on freedom of occupation grounds and LGBT people who support it because gays need it to have children. On the other side you have socialists who oppose it because they see it as exploitation and Feminists who see it as a violation of female body autonomy.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I think the recent No buyers didn't scroll down and read the comment by @Boklam clarifying that the resolution criteria is considered relative and not absolute. That's why a bunch of folks strongly expect it's already been met.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

On abortion: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/why-women-rebel-against-pro-life Although the main point of the article is about electoral consequences, he also writes about his own agreement with the pro-choice view:

For all but the deeply religious, government regulation in this area appears to be a major infringement on individual liberty and a barrier to full citizenship rights.

I would add that the public is also legitimately concerned about slippery slopes here. After Dobbs came down, voters could see Republican politicians who had recently declared their solemn belief that life begins at conception suddenly switch to talking about only passing 15-week bans. Nobody is fooled.

Half of humanity bears the physical burdens and risks of continuing the species, and if we’re going to defer to the choices of women on any issue, it should be this one.

A woman’s time on this planet is shaped and defined by decisions made about her reproductive health. You won’t be able to propagandize them into wanting to hand final authority over such choices to the state.

And then there is: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/the-inferiority-of-men which is a (mostly approving) conversation with RFH. This is perhaps more contestable, because RFH is a TERF (but that's still more left than right) and it's also a podcast rather than an article, but it appears on the substack linked in the market nonetheless.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@manyu I didn't understand the market to include abortion. Is it normally considered a "gender" issue?

predicted YES

@GCS Yes? Its title is "why women rebel against pro-life" and the arguments in the article are entirely phrased in terms of "women's reproductive choices", etc. I don't see how you can frame this as anything but a gender issue.

predicted NO

@manyu I think I would limit gender issues to masculinity, femininity, and trans issues. I could see how abortion could also fit, but I don't think that is given. It can also be framed as a religious, legal, privacy, or medical issue - though many gender issues can be as well.

@Boklam should weigh in

predicted YES

@GCS In the market description:

RH's opinions on gender issues seem very, very un-left. (I hesitate even to say "traditional" -- it's hard to imagine writing like this from the pre-1960s West, or China at any time in its history...)

This does not sound like something you would say if you were talking about RH's views about trans/gender identity issues exclusively.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@manyu Yeah this looks decisively “leaning” left on gender to me. I imagine Boklam has just been busy. You could say Hanania’s phrasing still has eerie trad undertones, but so do Catholic democrats.

@manyu it's certainly a gendered issue but my interpretation of the market creator is that they were thinking of gender identity stuff specifically, as opposed to issues that affect some particular gender. One would tend to describe abortion as a women's issue or feminist issue before describing it as a gender issue imo. But I agree it would be good to get clarification from @Boklam

predicted YES

@JamesSully If he had meant gender identity or trans issues, he would've said gender identity or trans issues rather than use a term as broad as "Gender issues".

bought Ṁ34 of NO

I trust Richard Hanania about as far as I can throw him, and I probably couldn't even lift him off the ground.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Would "I dislike LGBT stuff, but the conservatives are going crazy in their attempts to fight it" count as left-wing, if the article pushes left relative to conservatives, but still stakes his opinion as "it is bad"?

What if his argumenet is "I dislike LGBT stuff, but as a principled libertarian I respect their right to exist and criminalizing it is bad" or something?

@jacksonpolack Yes, if the main focus of the article is RH contrasting his (relatively further-left) position on gender issues with someone else's (relatively further-right) position. This is regardless of where RH's position lies on an absolute scale: if his article seems to be trying to pull someone toward the left, it counts.

If the main theme of the article is...

"The conservatives are really being too hateful in hating trans people" --> YES

"Some right-wing crazies want to criminalize homosexuality, let me explain why that's a terrible idea" --> YES