I've heard various claims over the past few years that poll results are consistently biased toward the Democrats.
This market resolves as follows. At noon US Pacific time the Sunday (Nov. 6) before election day 2022, I will look at "Average Seats Controlled by Party" on the FiveThirtyEight House forecast.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/
After the election (and after mainstream US media present the results as final), if more Republicans have seats in the House than FiveThirtyEight predicted, this market will resolve to YES. If the number of Republicans in the House is less than or equal to the FiveThirtyEight prediction, the market will resolve to NO.
The market closes the morning of Sunday Nov. 6.
(If FiveThirtyEight does not have an "Average Seats" prediction as of that date, I will use my best judgement to extract a similar prediction from FiveThirtyEight. In the unlikely event that FiveThirtyEight predictions are unavailable, this market resolves to N/A.)
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