When will Joe Biden die?
Basic
38
Ṁ6124
2030
3%
Before 2024
3%
Before the 2024 US presidential election
3%
In 2024, but after the US presidential election
7%
Before 2026
0.6%
Before 2027
2%
Before 2030
82%
Not by 2030

Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office. If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82. There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia. On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":

https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-health-bdce6c15df6186e06710f2d903a3513e

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bought Ṁ1 Before 2030 YES

Before 2024 = before the end of 2024?

No, no one ever uses “before” that way, that would be “before 2025”

sold Ṁ2 Before 2024 YES

So it should be resolved to No

@Bob can you resolve "Before 2024" to No?

how do I resolve individual answers?

I don't think you can do that for linked MC (only unlinked). My apologies for asking - I confused myself

sold Ṁ5 Before 2030 YES

Oh this shouldn't be linked MC! If he died today we would want to resolve several to yes.

Think this whole market should be NAed and a new unlinked one set up @mods

Aside from his mental decline, Biden’s physical health appears to be above average for that of a 81 year old American man (whose life expectancy would be 86 or 87).

  • He supposedly does not drink or smoke and exercises multiple times a week

  • No cancer since 2023

  • No heart disease (excluding A-fib)

The last 3 presidents to die were all in their mid-90s and Jimmy Carter is still living at 99.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1

If I'm reading this table correctly, an 82 y/o male has a 7.9691% chance of dying before their 83rd birthday, and a term life expectancy of 6.77 years, so death date ~July 2030ish.

not by 2030? but this man's a fossil

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