Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

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Dec 6

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Will the 12 month average, seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) go above 3% (YES) before the unemployment rate goes below 4% (NO)?

In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?

Unemployment as of Oct 4 was 4.1%. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.

Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released every month. CPI as of September was 2.5%. Trend over time data here.

I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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CPI is 2.6%

Next release date for unemployment numbers is December 6

No change in the unemployment rate, holding steady at 4.1%.

Next release date for inflation numbers is Nov 13.

reposted

Next release date Nov 1!

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, the smallest 12-month increase
since February 2021.

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