Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN?
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resolved Jun 20
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NO

According to the criteria set by CNN on 5/15/2024 in this post:

https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-between-president-joe-biden-and-former-president-donald-j-trump-on-june-27/

Whether or not:

  • The criteria change

  • The debate is cancelled

  • RFK Jr. ends up participating

(Note: if the date of the debate changes, qualifying polls must close before 6/20/2024, not 7 days before the rescheduled date.)


"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.

Polls that meet CNN editorial standards and will be considered qualifying polls include those sponsored by: CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, the New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.

The polling window to determine eligibility for the debate opened March 13, 2024, and closes seven days before the date of the debate."

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He doesn't need 15% overall, just in four separate polls.

Correct, scrolling down you can see the individual polls.

reposted

The Kennedy campaign announced that they now have enough signatures to appear on the ballot in 19 states, totaling 278 electoral college votes

The Kennedy campaign announced that they now have enough signatures to appear on the ballot in 19 states, totaling 278 electoral votes. Only 9 of those states have confirmed ballot access for RFK Jr.

Today, the Kennedy campaign announced that they turned in enough signatures for ballot access in NY. They say RFK Jr. is now on the ballot or has enough signatures for the ballot in 16 states, totaling 229 electoral college votes. https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_signatures_historic_ballot_access_victory_new_york

I'm not sure why Florida was not included in this list, but Kennedy previously announced ballot access in Florida via the Reform Party. Florida has an additional 30 EV. https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_reform_party_nomination_ballot_access_florida

Including Florida, Kennedy would now have enough signatures for the ballot or already be on the ballot in 17 states equalling 259 EV.


@BishopG The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is officially on the ballot in seven states — Utah, Michigan, California, Delaware, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and Texas. It has collected enough signatures for ballot access in nine other states — New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, New Jersey, and now New York.

I believe they need to be officially on the ballot in 270 EVs worth of states, not just collect enough signatures

For Florida, per this article the Reform party is not yet on the ballot. The Kennedy campaign appears to still be gathering signatures in Florida.

@BishopG he mentioned in an interview they are holding off submitting them so there is less time for opposing party to try and contest and invalidate the submission

RFK Jr. is now on the ballot in Florida, after the Reform party was recertified this week.

He has three of the four polls, and he has ballot access in the following states:
Florida: 30 EV
Utah: 6 EV
Michigan: 15 EV
California: 54 EV
Delaware: 3 EV
Oklahoma: 7 EV
Texas: 40 EV
Hawaii: 4 EV
________________
Total: 159 EV

Here's Where RFK Jr. Is On The Presidential Ballot (forbes.com)

Kennedy has hit 15% in a third qualifying poll: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

RFK Jr. has met the criteria in two polls so far in the March 15 - June 21 window:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3896

According to his site, he also seems to be making progress towards the required ballot access, but is not there yet and only has a month left: https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

@SaviorofPlant Note that some states marked as complete on Kennedy's campaign page are still reviewing the signatures submitted (e.g., Texas).

And many won't even accept signatures in time.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna152708

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