According to the criteria set by CNN on 5/15/2024 in this post:

https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-between-president-joe-biden-and-former-president-donald-j-trump-on-june-27/

Whether or not:

• The criteria change

• The debate is cancelled

• RFK Jr. ends up participating

(Note: if the date of the debate changes, qualifying polls must close before 6/20/2024, not 7 days before the rescheduled date.)

"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.

Polls that meet CNN editorial standards and will be considered qualifying polls include those sponsored by: CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, the New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.

The polling window to determine eligibility for the debate opened March 13, 2024, and closes seven days before the date of the debate."