https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1865651411851117026
[edit for clarification]
Where was Bashar al-Assad at 1:55am EST on 12/8/2024?
DEAD or ALIVE
Update 2024-13-12 (PST): If no credible reporting answers this question by 3/8/2025 (90 days), market will resolve as N/A (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-03-17 (PST): • Resolution Option: The market will be resolved to Syria based on the interpretation of credible sources. • Timing Rationale: The creator’s analysis of flight times implies that Assad remained in Syria at 1:55am EST, since his departure took place later on 8 December 2024. • Evidence Cited: The Reuters, NYT, and Guardian sources support this conclusion. • Resolution Timing: The market is planned to be resolved on 3/24/2025, subject to objections raised before that date. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8,997 | |
| 2 | Ṁ185 | |
| 3 | Ṁ145 | |
| 4 | Ṁ124 | |
| 5 | Ṁ63 |
People are also trading
@traders
I plan to resolve this market to Syria, based on the sources below.
If you believe this market should be resolved N/A or any option other than Syria, please share your reasoning in the comments below.
Acknowledging my bias to resolve this market to Syria, I will wait a week before resolving to hear any objections. I plan to resolve this market on 3/24/2025.
---
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/assads-final-hours-syria-deception-despair-flight-2024-12-13/
"[Assad] flew to Russia's Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, and from there on to Moscow."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/08/world/syria-war-damascus
"President Bashar al-Assad of Syria arrived in Russia on Sunday evening after fleeing his country, according to Russian state media and two Iranian officials."
A flight from Hmeimim to Moscow takes about 4 hours. If Assad arrived in Moscow in the "evening", that places his departure time from Syria after 9:55am local time (1:55am EST), meaning he was still in Syria at the time of this question.
Assad himself said in a statement that he left Syria for Russia "on the evening of Sunday 8 December". While I would not consider him a credible source alone, this aligns with the NYT report.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/16/middle-east-crisis-israeli-government-golan-heights-occupation-syria-gaza-latest-updates?page=with%3Ablock-67602da18f08762bf0a5a525#block-67602da18f08762bf0a5a525
@traders I plan to resolve this market to SYRIA today. (See pinned comment)
Last call: If you believe this market should have a different resolution, please comment with your reasoning and any sources.
@traders
I plan to resolve this market to Syria, based on the sources below.
If you believe this market should be resolved N/A or any option other than Syria, please share your reasoning in the comments below.
Acknowledging my bias to resolve this market to Syria, I will wait a week before resolving to hear any objections. I plan to resolve this market on 3/24/2025.
---
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/assads-final-hours-syria-deception-despair-flight-2024-12-13/
"[Assad] flew to Russia's Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, and from there on to Moscow."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/08/world/syria-war-damascus
"President Bashar al-Assad of Syria arrived in Russia on Sunday evening after fleeing his country, according to Russian state media and two Iranian officials."
A flight from Hmeimim to Moscow takes about 4 hours. If Assad arrived in Moscow in the "evening", that places his departure time from Syria after 9:55am local time (1:55am EST), meaning he was still in Syria at the time of this question.
Assad himself said in a statement that he left Syria for Russia "on the evening of Sunday 8 December". While I would not consider him a credible source alone, this aligns with the NYT report.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/16/middle-east-crisis-israeli-government-golan-heights-occupation-syria-gaza-latest-updates?page=with%3Ablock-67602da18f08762bf0a5a525#block-67602da18f08762bf0a5a525
@BishopG he could have flown to Vladivostok where it was evening, played some rigged poker at the big casinos there to relieve stress from being overthrown, then travelled to Moscow later /s
No idea on timing, but I'm hearing Syria -> Lebanon -> Russia with an assist from Hizbollah.
Edit - This is 'wrong', the rumours were about other officials/relatives. According the Reuters, Assad himself went from Damscus to a Russian base in Latakia then on to Moscow. He was last spoken to by the then Syrian PM via phone at 10:30pm local time.
@BishopG are you waiting for further info/sources to resolve this? What are you conditions for resolution?
I am waiting to see credible reporting that confirms what time/on what flight Assad left Syria for Russia. This market asks where Assad was at 1:55am EST (6:55am UTC) on December 8th 2024.
There was a lot of chatter about flight RB9218, which took off from Damascus at 1:55am UTC and disappeared off radar at 2:38am UTC near Homs, Syria, after an abrupt turn and descent. Some reports claimed Assad was on this flight and that it was shot down. (Reported by Reuters around 6:40am UTC, later deleted.) Ukrainian intelligence services said those reports were Russian disinformation used as cover while Russia helped Assad escape the country.
BBC News' Russian service reported that Assad may have been on flight RFF8796, tracked at 11:34am UTC flying out of Latakia, Syria and arriving in Moscow at 3:36pm UTC.
Russia's foreign ministry announced at 11:28am UTC that Assad had left Syria.
Russia's TASS reported at 5:44pm UTC that Assad had arrived in Moscow.
If anyone has any information or reporting that may help resolve this market, please share in the comments.
@BishopG thanks for your detailed response. If no new information comes to light by the end of the year, how will you resolve this?
@Shrill I will give it up to 90 days - if there is no credible reporting that answers this question by 3/8/2025, market will resolve N/A