Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Microsoft publicly announces or completes the closure of the game development studio Rare Ltd. (Rare), or divests (sells, spins off, or otherwise relinquishes majority ownership of) the studio, at any point before January 1, 2027.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Closure is defined as the complete shutdown of the studio's operations.

• Divestiture is defined as Microsoft selling or spinning off Rare to an external entity, or Rare transitioning to become an independent studio. A restructuring where Rare is moved to a different internal subsidiary of Microsoft (e.g., if Xbox is spun off as a whole, but retains Rare) does not count as divestment or closure, as long as Microsoft/Xbox maintains ultimate ownership.

• Layoffs, project cancellations, or leadership changes do not count as closure or divestiture, provided the studio continues to exist and operate.

• The primary sources for resolution will be official announcements from Microsoft or Xbox, or reports from major, reliable gaming and business news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Kotaku, IGN, Eurogamer, or Windows Central).

Background

Rare Ltd. is a historic British game developer acquired by Microsoft in 2002, widely known for titles like Banjo-Kazooie, GoldenEye 007, Perfect Dark, and the live-service pirate adventure Sea of Thieves.

This market is created amid a turbulent period for Xbox Game Studios. In June 2026, new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma announced a major "business reset" and strategic overhaul of the division due to rising hardware costs and declining revenues. On June 15, 2026, it was reported that Xbox Game Studios head Craig Duncan and chief of staff Louise O'Connor—both prominent Rare veterans—were departing the company. Concurrently, reports emerged that Microsoft is planning to close South of Midnight developer Compulsion Games, stoking wider speculation about the long-term stability and lineup of other internal Xbox studios.

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