This market is contignent upon Joe Biden signing an executive order regulating AI. See here.
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023? | Manifold
If Biden does sign such an order, and the order has a court case started against it by someone for whatever reason, and ends up in the US court system, with at least two judges overturning at least one provision of it, or deeming it unconstitutional. This market will resolve yes.
Should the executive order however be upheld in court system by at least two judges, this market will resolve no.
If order is not signed this year, or at least two judges don't come to consensus about the broadest legality of the EO this year, this market will resolve N/A. The market will resolve on 2nd of January 2024, however, if the court decision comes on 1st or 2nd, that won't count for this market, as these two extra days are just a buffer for me in order to make sure any information about the court decision reaches us before the market is resolved.
In case of split decision, like one judge rejecting the plantiff suit, and other judge striking down executive order provisions or the executive order in it's entireity, the market will resolve upon the higher court decision as long as at least two judges partook in it. I.E if the Supreme Court ends up rulling the order unconstitutional, the market will resolve yes.
To make clear, this market will be resolved in January of 2024, as long as there is split in the judges opinion if the executive order is fine or not, as decision of higher court will be the one that will tip the balance in such case.
I'm more then open to listening to feedback, or answering the question in the comments.
I will not, however much I'm tempted to, bet in this market, in order to not add any bias into possible resolution.
Happy betting!
Related questions
@MattLashofSullivan "Or at least two judges don't come to consensus about the broadest legality of the EO this year, this market will resolve N/A."
Order was not challenged, and therefore not upheld by the court, so that's why it was resolved as N/A.
@Betrayer Fair enough. That's not how i read that sentence and it seems a little perverse for the order to be so legal that it isn't YES, but ok.
@MattLashofSullivan it also seems a little unfair to expressly state one contingency at the top of the description ("This market is contignent upon Joe Biden signing an executive order regulating AI."), while leaving another contingency implicit an in ambiguously-worded sentence.
@DavidSchwartz As I wrote in description, if EO does not happen, the market resolves N/A, just like it would resolve if the courts totally split before end of 2023.