Will Chile have a new Constitution approved until the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 18
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NO
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predicted NO

@BernardoChrispimBaron does this resolve immediately upon the results of the current referendum, or are you going to wait until end of year, on the off-chance of some other constitutional change in the next two weeks?

predicted NO
predicted NO

bought Ṁ40 of NO

predicted NO

predicted NO

bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://x.com/servelchile official results will appear here.

predicted NO

Another pretty consistent pollster explaining their results: 45% YES / 53% NO (it’s the other way around for this market)

predicted NO

Latest poll from Activa Research. Blue line is “A favor” (Yes), red line is “En contra” (No). No more polls until ballot day, by law, but some “private” polling allowed.

predicted NO

Last week poll from Cadem / Plaza Pública

predicted NO

Also, it will be voted on December the 17th, and official results will very likely be available on the same day, so @BernardoChrispimBaron might want to close it that evening.

predicted NO
predicted NO

“According to recent surveys, there is significant indecision among voters, with 53% of Chileans still undecided about their vote in the December constitutional referendum. Among those who have already taken a stance, 30% will vote against the new Constitution, while only 8% are in favor. Of those opting for 'Against', 49% identify with the left. Regarding interest in the constitutional process, 24% are 'very or quite interested', the same percentage 'somewhat interested', and 47% 'little or not at all interested'.

Regarding the assessment of the constitutional process initiated in March 2023, 47% rate it as ‘bad or very bad’, 33% as ‘neither good nor bad’, and 11% as ‘very good’“

I assign a higher accuracy to this poll, because it uses an “in person / live” methodology instead of relaying on internet panels or phone calls.

Still, the numbers differ too much from the more frequent polling made by Cadem.

https://www.pauta.cl/actualidad/2023/11/20/aun-hay-indecisos-encuesta-cep-muestra-que-un-53-aun-no-decide-si-votar-a-favor-o-en-contra-en-el-plebiscito.html

November 6th polling results

bought Ṁ30 YES from 24% to 30%

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