I made this mousetrap myself from sticks and glue. Will my trap catch the mouse that moved in recently? Within a week.
Place your bets!
Update day 1: Damn rodent have managed to outsmart me!
On today's morning, I found my trap untriggered and untouched. But I was in a rush and accidentally knocked it over and didn't have time to set it back up. While I was away, my roommate heard some distinct hamster activity in my room, so the beast hasn't moved out yet. This is good news.
The bad news is that when I came back, I found that the trigger piece is nowhere to be found! It seems like this sly creature has stolen it with the bait! This drastically lowers my chances of success, because now I have to find the piece. I can put together another one, but since I don't have those plastic toothpicks anymore, I won't be able to replicate the design exactly, and the trap won't qualify for the same trap. Please advise how to proceed.
Update day 2: I think I managed to lull his vigilance...
I haven't found the stolen piece yet, but I didn't put too much effort into it, to be honest. Tomorrow I will search more thoroughly, moving furniture and looking into
secluded corners. In the worst-case scenario, I will get new toothpicks and recreate the piece, using photos as a reference.
In other news - I've set the trap without trigger the same way it would be placed when armed and started to put shards of walnut into it, so the bastard gets accustomed to the structure, learns where the food is, and starts checking the trap regularly. And I think it's working - pieces of walnuts are disappearing mysteriously.
Update day 3: I've found it!
It was really difficult. I've moved everything that moves, searching using a flashlight for a good half of an hour. For a moment I even started to consider exotic versions, like that of roommate sabotage. Using my phone as an endoscope, I've managed to look past two 90-degree turns behind an immovable piece of furniture. There it was! That insidious bastard filched it literally into the single most hard-to-reach place of the apartment. How to get it out now? A magnet on a thread I think would do it, but I happen to not have a magnet. Looking around for something-not-quite-sure-what gave me strong vibes of an escape-the-room type of quest. After some time I came up with a long thin wooden rod, with a piece of wire attached to one end, resembling a hook. Questroomness intensifies. After several painful minutes scrunched, turning and sliding the rod back and forth, I managed to hook the damn trigger piece and retrieve it. Bingo! Ha-ha! Now I can arm the trap, and capture the fiend.
Update day 4/5: I've caught it! Twice, even...
It became complicated all of a sudden. Yes, the trap worked, it did catch the mouse. But, I was not around to secure the success. As some of you predicted, after some time the mouse chewed through the thin plastic of the container and get out. Judging by the impressive amount of tiny feces in and around the trap, the mouse spent in there quite some time. My guess is several hours. Even with the rock on top of the container, the mouse managed to move it across the floor quite a bit.
I've put more photos in the comments section.
Lesson learned, and I've set up a new container with thick plastic, much more sturdy. Everything else was the same. In fact, this was the original container I wanted to use from the beginning, but at that time my vegetarian roommate insisted to punch through holes so there was no chance of it suffocating. And at the time I was not sure if it was indeed a mouse or someone's escaped hamster, so I decided to play it safe.
By the next morning, the trap was triggered and the mouse was in there.
It was kinda cute and pretty.
Releasing the mouse
We wanted to release the poor thing into the wilderness and to carry we put it into a big jar with a lid. In the process, swift little one almost managed to escape again because I was still a bit drowsy.
We took the jar with the mouse prisoner to a wooded area about a kilometer away from home, placed it on the ground, and opened the lid. The mouse hesitated for a moment, but then carefully snuck out and checked to ensure that it was safe before scurrying away and transitioning into jerboa-like leaps. And with that, our quest was complete. Farewell, cute little thing, we will almost miss you.
Finally, the story is over. I didn't expect it to be so long and troublesome. I thought I would catch the thing within a day or two, while this market acts like a bounty. But it turned out more interesting this way, didn't it?
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ867 | |
| 2 | Ṁ390 | |
| 3 | Ṁ188 | |
| 4 | Ṁ104 | |
| 5 | Ṁ66 |
I know there will be a debate about whether or not it should count.
My argument is the breached trap has in fact worked, catching the mouse and holding it for some time.
Now, I acknowledge that I have a conflict of interest having so many YES shares. I'm up to outsourcing the resolution of the market to an independent trustworthy-ish person, or a jury, or an oracle if it's possible.
I have a few photos as additional evidence if the debate requires.
I would vote N/A because of the replaced container.
The initial question has been "I made this mousetrap myself from sticks and glue. Will my trap catch the mouse that moved in recently? Within a week." with a photo of another container.
That mousetrap on the photo from the original question didn't manage catch the mouse (i.e. failed on the keeping it inside the trap part), another setup did.
Good job on the quest though. )
@Berg I bought no exactly because it was clear that the mouse would chew through the container. The trap didn't work, a different trap worked. Please resolve the market accordingly to no or n/a if you must. The market should never resolve yes.
@AlexbGoode well if I were around to check the trap every few hours, I would secure the mouse before it chews out. You would qualify the same exact trap as 'worked'?
In this case, by this logic, the judgment on trap performance relies on external factors (me coming to check it often enough). To me, it feels wrong. The question of the market is will the trap catch the mouse, without specifying that I must secure it. In essence, the purpose of any is to catch, not to hold indefinitely. My first trap did in fact catch the mouse.
Maybe if I include images of how many mouse droppings were in there my point that the mouse indeed was in there for several hours will sound stronger
@Berg personally I think it's essentially the same trap. Even if you swap some components that's still just iteration. It's a makeshift homemade trap and substituting one plastic container for another does not substantially change its nature.
@ian can you please provide your opinion or advice on how to resolve the dispute fairly?
@Berg Hmmm it seems like the original trap as pictured didn’t catch the mouse. That seems like enough info to resolve no imo.
I suppose the argument for yes or n/a is that your general trap design (ignoring the container thickness as a parameter) worked. The thickness of the container seems like an important parameter that bettors had no clue they should ignore, however.
@ian I personally feel like a different wording on the question would have gotten a less ambiguous resolution. “A homemade mousetrap” instead of “This homemade mousetrap” for example. Sadly, we’ve been dealing with the Mousetrap of Theseus.
The market description just says your mouse trap. It doesn't say the earlier version of the trap. Given you have a week to catch the mouse it's reasonable to expect that you would make changes to it.
The spirit of the market is whether you would be successful in catching the mouse with your homemade trap and since it was a resounding success, this should resolve YES.
@Akzzz123 I could go back and forth all day and argue Read As Written vs Spirit of the Market but instead I’m going to say that markets should generally be resolved by people who don’t have an investment in the outcome.
@JohnSmithb9be Manifold would benefit if devs implement some sort of system for Oracles.
On-manifold voting oracles would make manifold worse imo, there'd be a lot of politics and coordianted votes for profit over large contested markets. It isn't big enough yet that having impartial third parties (the admins) resolve whichever way they think is correct becomes a problem.
On the other hand, oracle manipulation politics would be fun, so
