I have 4.5 weeks of content to get through (it started in november), but I have a decent amount of free time, so I will try my best to buckle down and speedrun it by 2/11. I have been a bit of an ugh field around writing essays, so I'm making it my top priority to get this done. The only assignment that I do not have to complete by the closing date is the final exam, which does not unlock until March 1st. The main purpose is just to get all the essays done.
As a motivation market, in case of the answer being yes, I will resolve the market as N/A instead. I will be sinking some of my own money into YES to make myself more likely to follow through, but there is no reason for anyone else to do so. Instead, you ought to dump money into NO to exploit me in the chance that I fail to meet this goal.
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@BenjaminJeter could u add something like ‘(can’t resolve yes)’ or ‘(see description)’ to the title in case people are just betting off the title (which they shouldnt but it happens).
@Bayesian idk maybe like 90% (warning: I am not an experienced forecaster and am very uncalibrated)? I'm ahead of pace right now by quite a bit, so I have a lot of leeway. The 10% probability I have on no mostly comes from the possibility of my wisdom teeth removal keeping me unable to write for more than a day. I could also probably pull an all nighter the last day if I get behind, but so far it's going pretty well. I'll be very happy to have this off my plate once I'm done.