This will be resolved based on reporting from the Icelandic Met Office.
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Plenty of uncertainty, but a timescale of one to two weeks before there might be another eruption is probably a reasonable guess based on the latest update:
https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night
[...] magma continues to accumulate under Svartsengi. Therefore, it is increasingly likely that another magma intrusion will occur, possibility leading to a second volcanic eruption. Geodetic modelling results indicate that over 10 million m3 of magma were sourced from beneath Svartsengi to feed the intrusion that formed on 18 December, which led to the eruption. Based on the ongoing uplift rate, it will take one to two weeks for the same amount of magma to accumulate again underneath Svartsengi. There is still significant uncertainty on when the built-up in magma pressure will be sufficient to trigger the next magma intrusion.
https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night
Updated 21 December at 12:55 UTC
Scientists who flew over the eruption site this morning confirm that no eruptive activity is visible and that lava flow from the craters seems to have ceased. Glowing is still visible in the lava field, possibly within closed channels. This was also confirmed by an Elfu staff member in Sýlingarfell. The activity appears to have diminished late last night or very early this morning. However, it is still possible that lava is flowing in closed channels, so it is premature to declare the eruption over.
"The fact that the activity is already reducing is not an indication of how long the eruption will last, but rather that the eruption is stabilising," the office said.
🤷
The web page takes time to load so I’ll post the last hazard map that is available (from Dec 6)
From en.vedur.is
Updated 18 December at 23:00
At 22:17 this evening, a volcanic eruption began north of Grindavík on the Reykjanes peninsula. The eruption is located close to Sundhnúkagígar, about four kilometres northeast of Grindavík, and it can be seen on nearby web cameras. The eruption was preceded by an earthquake swarm that started at 21:00.
Does anyone have a more specific theory to work off of than this fairly general distribution? Given that we're just under two weeks out from the res date, that would put our likelihood at ~70%?
@Panfilo Nice baseline, I wonder if the fact that the buildup was so gradual implies a longer timescale for this one. Disclaimer: no idea if the buildup was actually more gradual than most - but do know the chances of eruption were considered to have declined significantly in recent weeks.
@slothropsmap It implies the eruption will be active on december 31st, regardless of when it starts. It could start tomorrow with a big blast and then slowly spew lava for months.
@slothropsmap To clarify, the resolution criteria hinge on the Icelandic Met Office’s determination of an active volcanic eruption on December 31st. The timing of the eruption’s onset is not a factor; the key is whether it is deemed active at any point during the day.
One can never predict the nature of things. However, the most recent information from the Iceland Met Office indicates that there is a significant probability of a volcanic eruption in the days to come. Following an outbreak of earthquakes and indications that magma began promptly broadening underground, Icelandic authorities were getting ready for a volcanic eruption in the southwest of the island in the coming days. In view of the quantity and speed of the subterranean magma intrusion, the Icelandic Meteorological Office declared that there was a "considerable" risk of an eruption on or near the Reykjanes peninsula.
Potentially very relevant!
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/what-will-be-the-peak-magnitude-of?r=UGFuZmlsbw
