Atlanta Fed's GDP Nowcast currently projects the rate of growth for the US economy in Q4 2025 to be 5.4%. Excluding 2020 and 2021 (COVID recovery), no quarter has had US GDP growth at or over 5% since Q3 2014.

This market resolves yes if US GDP growth comes in at 5% or above in the BEA's 4th quarter advance estimate, currently scheduled for February 20th. It resolves no if growth is under 5% in this advance estimate.

If the date is rescheduled for when the initial estimate will be released, I will change the market close date.

To be 100% clear, this is a market about the first Advance Estimate of GDP growth from the BEA for Q4 2025, not for any other estimate or revision that comes after that.

I may trade on this market.