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MANIFOLD
Claude Opus 4.5 released before 2026?
116
Ṁ1.1kṀ32k
resolved Nov 24
Resolved
YES

  • Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Opus 4.6 or any other spiritual successor of Opus 4.1 would count for resolution.

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Anthropic
Claude
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bought Ṁ200 YES

Interesting data point https://epoch.ai/data/ai-models?view=table

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 69% order

what?!?!?

https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-opus-45-tomorrow?r=amlt

bought Ṁ20 NO

Anyone want to bet more? I’m a No believer but this market is very illiquid

@Bayesian what are the best odds you would give me, out of curiosity?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BenAybar hmmm i'd do 65% right now

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 60% order

@Bayesian 1k limit order at 60%

what about opus 4.6?

@JoshYou any spiritual successor of opus 4.1, so yeah opus 4.6 would count

Related: https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropic-release-claude-opus-gOOpU8PRlg

bought Ṁ15 YES

Apparently Anthropic is testing a model called Neptune V6. Neptune V4 was Opus 4.0

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