Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Opus 4.6 or any other spiritual successor of Opus 4.1 would count for resolution.

Yes — resolved on Nov 24, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

MANIFOLD

Claude Opus 4.5 released before 2026?

116

Ṁ1.1kṀ32k

resolved Nov 24

Resolved

YES

ALL

Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Opus 4.6 or any other spiritual successor of Opus 4.1 would count for resolution.

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Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

47% chance

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

5% chance

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

99% chance

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bought Ṁ200 YES

Interesting data point https://epoch.ai/data/ai-models?view=table

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 69% order

what?!?!?

https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-opus-45-tomorrow?r=amlt

bought Ṁ20 NO

Anyone want to bet more? I’m a No believer but this market is very illiquid

@Bayesian what are the best odds you would give me, out of curiosity?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BenAybar hmmm i'd do 65% right now

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 60% order

@Bayesian 1k limit order at 60%

what about opus 4.6?

@JoshYou any spiritual successor of opus 4.1, so yeah opus 4.6 would count

bought Ṁ15 YES

Apparently Anthropic is testing a model called Neptune V6. Neptune V4 was Opus 4.0

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Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

+10% 1d47% chance

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

5% chance

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

99% chance

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