Will a non-swing state flip in the US presidential elections in 2024?
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resolved Nov 6
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NO

Using The Cook Political Report's classification, retrieved 2024-Sep-12, the following states are in tossup/swing-state territory:

  • Wisconsin

  • Michigan

  • Pensylvannia

  • North Carolina

  • Georgia

  • Arizona

  • Nevada

Will any state not on the above list unexpectedly flip in the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Districts such as Nebraska 2nd and Maine 2nd do not count

For reference, the same report classifies these states as "Likely Dem"

  • Maine

  • Minnesota

  • New Hampshire

  • New Mexico

  • Virginia

And the following ones as "Likely Rep"

  • Florida

  • Texas

Question will be resolved whenever we have all non-swing states consensually called

For fairness, I won't trade this market

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Thats a wrap, everyone has been called. Resolving to NO

Ok, so the only non-swing states that seem yet to be called are Maine and Alaska. Seems they are pretty much in the bag for their respective favorites but I'll wait a little longer to resolve the market

i so desperately want to believe https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

poll shocker: trump leads harris in new hampshire!
https://nhjournal.com/poll-shocker-trump-leads-harris-in-new-hampshire/

Trump 50 - Harris 48 in Florida

https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/10/03/florida-trump-50-harris-48/

Could the sunshine state be up for grabs again?

Surprisingly close polls in Iowa

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/

And Alaska of all places?

https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/1834657703509324089

I think the 2016 Election is probably a good case study for this since 538/Predictit both had Hillary over 90% to win WI/PA/MI at one point and she lost all 3, so there's high amounts of correlation.

Betting Markets have the Likely R states around 15% D and the Likely D states around 15% R, so maybe this should be 30%, but betting markets have a tendency to overestimate unlikely outcomes.

gotta admit that new hampshire and minnesotta were suspiciously close in former elections

at the same time, these non-swing states get polled much less frequently so I am very interested to see if manifold can find/aggregate more accurate information about them!

@BayesianTom In both states, the difference between Biden and Trump was over 7%. In my opinion, for Harris to lose one of these states, she would have to make a major mistake before the election, or something really unexpected would need to happen or be revealed. Under normal circumstances, I don't see any chance of those states flipping. Even if the polling is off, Harris still holds a comfortable lead according to RCP and 538.

@Lion I just realized I was watching the 2016 results instead of the 2020, sorry

@BayesianTom Yeah, Hillary was wildy unpopular. But Harris could start eating cats&dogs 😆

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