Using The Cook Political Report's classification, retrieved 2024-Sep-12, the following states are in tossup/swing-state territory:
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pensylvannia
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada
Will any state not on the above list unexpectedly flip in the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Districts such as Nebraska 2nd and Maine 2nd do not count
For reference, the same report classifies these states as "Likely Dem"
Maine
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia
And the following ones as "Likely Rep"
Florida
Texas
Question will be resolved whenever we have all non-swing states consensually called
For fairness, I won't trade this market
Surprisingly close polls in Iowa
And Alaska of all places?
I think the 2016 Election is probably a good case study for this since 538/Predictit both had Hillary over 90% to win WI/PA/MI at one point and she lost all 3, so there's high amounts of correlation.
Betting Markets have the Likely R states around 15% D and the Likely D states around 15% R, so maybe this should be 30%, but betting markets have a tendency to overestimate unlikely outcomes.
@BayesianTom In both states, the difference between Biden and Trump was over 7%. In my opinion, for Harris to lose one of these states, she would have to make a major mistake before the election, or something really unexpected would need to happen or be revealed. Under normal circumstances, I don't see any chance of those states flipping. Even if the polling is off, Harris still holds a comfortable lead according to RCP and 538.