i so desperately want to believe https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

poll shocker: trump leads harris in new hampshire!
https://nhjournal.com/poll-shocker-trump-leads-harris-in-new-hampshire/

Trump 50 - Harris 48 in Florida

https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/10/03/florida-trump-50-harris-48/

Could the sunshine state be up for grabs again?

Surprisingly close polls in Iowa

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/

And Alaska of all places?

https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/1834657703509324089

I think the 2016 Election is probably a good case study for this since 538/Predictit both had Hillary over 90% to win WI/PA/MI at one point and she lost all 3, so there's high amounts of correlation.

Betting Markets have the Likely R states around 15% D and the Likely D states around 15% R, so maybe this should be 30%, but betting markets have a tendency to overestimate unlikely outcomes.

gotta admit that new hampshire and minnesotta were suspiciously close in former elections

at the same time, these non-swing states get polled much less frequently so I am very interested to see if manifold can find/aggregate more accurate information about them!

@BayesianTom In both states, the difference between Biden and Trump was over 7%. In my opinion, for Harris to lose one of these states, she would have to make a major mistake before the election, or something really unexpected would need to happen or be revealed. Under normal circumstances, I don't see any chance of those states flipping. Even if the polling is off, Harris still holds a comfortable lead according to RCP and 538.

@Lion I just realized I was watching the 2016 results instead of the 2020, sorry

@BayesianTom Yeah, Hillary was wildy unpopular. But Harris could start eating cats&dogs 😆