Will OpenAI announce a massively recursive model, a new mechinterp system, and non-token based pricing, before December?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ4.4k

Nov 30

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If lumpenspace wins the bet, this market resolves YES. Any approximation of the terms put into the market title are only an approximation and the bet's result will alone determine this market's resolution.

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When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?

What number model will OpenAI be on by EOY?

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Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

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Tbh "which is available to end users" pretty much rules this out given that OpenAI hides even their CoT

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 1.0% order

@Bayesian fill me

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 4% order

@jim sorry no 1% is too low but i put one at 4%

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 2% order

@Bayesian no sorry 3% is too high but I put one at 2%

@jim lol soem guy on internet may fill me at 10% so i'll hold out for that for now

@Bayesian you mean @lumpenspace ?

@jim yes hopefully

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When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?

What number model will OpenAI be on by EOY?

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Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

26% chance

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