I have tracked my wins and losses in a video game I've been playing called openfront.io. It looks like more than statistically chance would predict, I win games in streaks; a large % of my wins appear to be part of a streak where I win multiple games in a row (almost always just 2, but once i won 3 in a row).

Will o3, when I ask it based on the win loss data I have, judge that for the 62 games on which I gave it data, there's this statistically significant pattern where i win more often as part of winstreaks than random chance would predict? (ie if games were independent). I have seemed to improve across those 62 games so I am worried that there might be some kind of effect where a statistical test doesn't take this into account and that makes the results false, but for simplicity this market will resolved based on this simple prompt and I encourage people to let me know if they think the conclusion o3 comes to is wrong or wtv.

• Update 2025-07-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has shared the results of the analysis that will determine the market's resolution. The analysis yielded a p-value of 0.048.