Will I (@Bayesian) buy back my previous networth's worth of mana before July?
6
47
100
Jul 2
31%
chance

I had roughly 237k mana in networth, and I donated roughly 200k mana. Will I buy it back once it is 10x devalued? The precise requirement is that I buy enough mana after the pivot to go back to a networth within 10k of what I had in the days leading to the donation.

It only needs to:

  • Involve a purchase

  • Ends with me having a net worth within 10k of what I had in the days leading to the donation

It needn't be bought back in one purchase; I might start with 100k mana and see whether i want to double it, for example. If there are edge cases related to owning prize points instead of mana, or similar currency changes, the spirit of the question is to ask whether I'll be roughly back where I was.


Relevant info:
The partner program thingy says I will earn $139.20. If I spend that amount on mana, I would get back 139k mana after the 10x devaluation, which is more than half of what I need for this to resolve YES. If I ask for the partner $ to be sent as mana (which I currently am not doing), that would still count for the purpose of this market as "buying mana".

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Added to the description:
> Relevant info:
> The partner program thingy currently says I will earn $139.20. If I spend that amount on mana, I would get back 139k mana after the 10x devaluation, which is more than half of what I need for this to resolve YES. If I ask for the partner $ to be sent as mana (which I currently am not doing), that would still count for the purpose of this market as "buying mana".

reposted

whoa i had no idea it was that much!