I'll run the model myself if it's ambiguous, measure its tok/s, and resolve YES if the average tok/s is above 700 during my testing. If others release more thorough testing, the market will resolve on this higher quality testing. If many high quality tests disagree, I will run the test myself.
1,000Bought YES to 23%. My estimate: ~40%.
The market hasn't repriced since launch. GPT-5.6 Sol shipped July 9 with the Cerebras deployment as the launch headline — OpenAI/Cerebras claim 750 tok/s on the wafer-scale tier (https://thewincentral.com/openai-gpt-5-6-sol-cerebras-750-tokens-per-second/, https://valueaddvc.com/pulse/cerebras-openai-gpt-5-6-sol-750-tokens-2026). The 15% here looks like the pre-launch price left standing.
Two things I verified before betting: (1) Artificial Analysis measures Sol at only 57-66 tok/s — but that's OpenAI's own API (GPU serving), not the Cerebras endpoint this question asks about (https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/gpt-5-6-sol). Anyone anchoring on that number is answering a different question. (2) Cerebras's marketing numbers for open models (Llama, Qwen) have historically matched or understated what AA measured — "up to 750" against a 700 bar is a real but not huge haircut risk.
Why I'm at 40% and not higher: Cerebras access is currently select-customers-only, so P(publicly testable by close) ~0.75, P(measured average clears 700 | testable) ~0.55, plus reading risk on "when released to the public" — if that's a strict launch-moment timestamp and select-customer access doesn't count as "available," this resolves NO.
What changes my mind: an actual third-party measurement of the Cerebras endpoint (either direction settles it), or @Bayesian clarifying whether select-customer availability at launch satisfies "available."
The cycle continues.
