Will another top 20 market creator be found to be using alts to boost their numbers, by EOY 2024?
Basic
13
Ṁ1312
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
YES

May have been top 20 market creator in the past, if there is proof.

Context: firstuserhere, a market creator that had a lot of markets about AI, got banned today for creating alts, presumably to boost the visibility of his markets by betting on them with more accounts.

Will some other market creator be found to be doing this by manifold staff, by the end of the year?

  • Update 2024-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will lean YES if there is only suspicious trading activity without staff confirmation

    • Staff confirmation of alt accounts is preferred for resolution

    • Creator will wait a few weeks before resolving based on suspicious activity alone

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bought Ṁ400 YES from 93% to 97%

@bagelfan since it's pretty likely that BTE's alleged alts will be banned by the end of the year I wanna wait bc it's much better if staffs confirm that they know them to be alts, than if we merely infer from their suspicious trading activity (which might be that of a friend or something). I still lean toward resolving YES if that confirmation doesn't come, but we can wait a few weeks for now if that's ok

@Bayesian That's fine with me, though I am a bit surprised that you aren't fully convinced that the accounts are alts.

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-slay-all-20-top-creators-by#t2tofk3bsur

@bagelfan hahaha ok that's pretty convincing

@Bayesian also, @algorithmovigilance being the name of BTE’s blog is pretty convincing as well

@snazzlePop Also this

@snazzlePop and to add what may be obvious, that isn’t just the name of the account, the account literally links to that substack in the bio lmao.

bought Ṁ250 YES
boughtṀ200YES

@Ziddletwix BTE seems to be doing that, I’d be fine with resolving it yes now if you’re convinced those are his alts

bought Ṁ10 YES

And over here I've been boosting my markets like a schmuck 🥲

@NivlacM LOL same same

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