What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024, according to Manifold users?
Mini
20
4.8k
2025
54%
Cash prizes via sweepstakes
24%
Other
7%
Real Money Trading
2%
Manifold Politics / Elections dashboard
2%
Manifold TV
2%
Date prediction
1.1%
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This will be resolved according to a poll of Manifold users, using approval voting, at the end of 2024.

Features must be roughly as specific as existing entries. For example, "Upcoming pivot" isn't specific enough to be a valid option.

I reserve myself and mods the right to remove/disqualify/etc invalid entries.

Respectfully duplicated and modified from James' market:

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@Bayesian According to James, the pivot should be called "Cash prizes via sweepstakes", which is different from "Real money trading". So I've added that option.

Personally, the distinction seems small to me. But I guess it's important for legal reasons.

@snazzlePop Upcoming pivot isn't specific enough for the purpose of this market

@Bayesian Upcoming pivot has become tiresome in the extreme. Being as everyone including Stevie Wonder and Helen Keller have been able to see for a bit, something somewhere in Manifold will change.

There’s a fundamental tension that’s generating either fertile chaos, or the usual bus off cliff. Markets in the big sense need wide-ranging, everyone chip in now, every good and bad comer-in to be useful to others. But Manifold business model — who wants me to better inform my opinion I can send my rates — vacillates widely between “experts will come here” and “join the community.” Community no question! Community Is great! But is this a sustainable business model? I will entertain the notion that I’ve missed something. I don’t read everything.