"Release" here is about the first day in which some model with GPT-5 in its name is present on the OpenAI API or one of the official OpenAI websites, where it is available to some members of the general public, ie is not limited only to private testers.
For example, GPT-5-mini, GPT-5-nano, GPT-5, GPT-5o, GPT-5-reasoning and GPT-5-Pro would all count.
I'll add more days if GPT-5 isn't released toward the end of August
Update 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The cutoff between days will be midnight US Pacific Time.
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@jim yeah,I'm surprised this is as tight as it is. My mana is all a week or two out. There more than 3% chance it doesn't release today
@jessald could they just announce its release but not release it or do livestreams always coincide with release?
@Bayesian Nah, with the Github leak, I think it's confirmed. I'm just saying that "LIVE5TREAM" into not dropping 5 is totally something that Sam would have done.
@NBAP Next time something like that happens we can bet ig. I think you are wrong ab the kind of things sama would have done
@Bayesian Do you not think Sam is a big memer? Or you just think "LIVE5TREAM" is too self-destructive of a meme even for him?
@NBAP I think of neither of these things. I know that saying live5tream is a not subtle indication that you are releasing gpt5
@NBAP tbc 'live5tream' was posted by the openai X account, im assuming Sam doesn't post directly from that, no? Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
For the record i think im deer in the headlights now lmao. my only hope can be that today's livestream is an announcement of a release next week and not the actual dropping today lol, but think my goose is cooked
@No_uh You're probably correct that Sam is not operating the Twitter account himself, but I would be very surprised if their social media manager posted that without his explicit endorsement, and so it's just as likely in my mind that the idea came directly from him.