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MANIFOLD
Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date
9
Ṁ250Ṁ2.7k
resolved Mar 19
Resolved
NO
Before March 2026
Resolved
YES
Before April 2026
Resolved
YES
Before May 2026
Resolved
YES
Before June 2026
Resolved
YES
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before August 2026
Resolved
YES
Before September 2026
Resolved
YES
Before October 2026
Resolved
YES
Before November 2026
Resolved
YES
Before December 2026

Minor changes to the name will count for the purpose of this market. Mistral's naming conventions are non-standard, so any model generally understood to be the 'Mistral 4' generation will count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date (this market)

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Market context
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