Kamala positive favorability before October?
48
Ṁ18k
Sep 30
99%
chance

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorability rating according to FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorability rating for any day between August 28 (inclusive) and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Ties do not qualify.

The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date.

See also:
Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6? (Market heavily inspired by Polymarket)
/Bayesian/polymarketlinked-kamala-positive-fa (Polymarket clone)

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Sitting at 0.1 favorable right now.

@Bayesian so annoying, it was just -0.9 yesterday, such a tease