Links:
Estimate: $2,800,000 - 3,500,000
CERA - Juvenile Triceratops Skeleton
Estimate: $2,500,000 - 3,500,000
This market resolves to the artwork which sells for a higher value at their upcoming Phillips auction.
Resolution details
Example from a past auction: this Patek Philippe watch lists "SOLD FOR CHF304,800". This is the equivalent number I will use.
Note that the final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium (and potentially other fees).
Edge cases:
If one is pulled before it is put up for auction, resolves N/A.
If one goes up for auction but fails to sell for any reason, it resolves to the other.
If there's a tie or they both fail to sell, both resolve at 50%.
Jackson Pollock - Untitled

Exploding with linear vitality, Untitled captures the pivotal moment when Jackson Pollock fused drawing, painting, and action into a single, radical language. Executed circa 1947, the work is among the earliest on paper to prelude the “drip” paintings that, as Willem de Kooning remarked, “broke the ice” for American painting and transformed the course of twentieth-century art. Echoing the radical technique of pouring, dripping, and flinging paint that Pollock developed in these years, the intricate layering of flicks, stains, and splatters demonstrates his ability to harness physical movement into a masterly balance of chaos and control. Each gesture preserves the immediacy of his action while coalescing into a delicate web of rhythmic energy, engaging the viewer with its spatial complexity and compositional sensitivity. (Lot essay)
CERA - Juvenile Triceratops Skeleton

Cera, a beautifully preserved juvenile Triceratops, is a singular example of this rarity. Measuring approximately 4.40 m in length and retaining over 70% original bone, the skeleton offers an intimate view of this iconic genus during an early stage of development. Its preservation, anatomical integrity and museum-quality mounting place it among the most significant juvenile dinosaur specimens ever offered and likely the finest juvenile Triceratops yet discovered. (Lot essay)
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ55 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 |

@Gen do you do routine bug reports now? This window shows the percentage of the wrong option, it should be inverted.
@Eliza Did anyone find out any history on the Pollock such as the last time it changed hands, who has owned it, etc.?
Provenance
Art of This Century, New York
Selden Rodman, Oakland, New Jersey
The New Gallery, New York
David Gibbs & Co., Inc., New York
Julian J. and Joachim Jean Aberbach, New York
Galerie Motte, Geneva
Galerie d'Arte Modern, Basel
Mr. and Mrs. William Bell, West Hartford, Connecticut
Anon. sale; Sotheby's, New York, 2 May 1988, lot 6
Private collection
Anon. sale; Sotheby's, New York, 13 November 1991, lot 17
Acquired at the above sale by the present owner
@Eliza I bought Pollock because my 11yo saw the auction and said, "Bet on the painting because art people are stupid!"
For New York sales, Phillips’ standard buyer’s premium is 29 percent up to $1,000,000, 22 percent from $1,000,001 to $6,000,000 and 15 percent above $6,000,000.
fwiw, this seems wildly high for a standard small painting but actually not so unreasonable when they have to handle the logistics for an entire dino skeleton
@Bayesian @Eliza and fwiw, i think the picture is a bit more complicated. i haven't looked into it a ton, but:
(1) the buyer's premium doesn't go entirely to the auction house. IIUC, the seller could even take some of it back. it's more generally "funds used to pay anyone involved in the sale" (given the complexity selling something like this, that's a lot of people).
(2) IIUC, the auction house is often providing minimum guarantees for some of these big ticket items, basically as insurance. so some part of the buyer's premium is almost like paying insurance premiums to the auction house
Anyone know if there's some chance the auction sells an item but the buyer backs out later, and how would that influence this market's resolution? (And the other one too I guess...)
@Eliza fairly confident. i'm more familiar with sothebys/christies, but from the auctions i've seen the spoken hammer price never includes the buyer's premium, while the price on the site includes it. (not sure about all fees/etc, but that part has been consistent so far)
