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MANIFOLD
Gemma 4 (Google) release date
8
Ṁ250Ṁ2.8k
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES
Before May 2026
Resolved
YES
Before June 2026
Resolved
YES
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before August 2026
Resolved
YES
Before September 2026
Resolved
YES
Before October 2026
Resolved
YES
Before November 2026
Resolved
YES
Before December 2026
Resolved
YES
Before January 2027
Resolved
YES
Before February 2027

Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemma 4, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Gemma 4 (Google) release date (this market)

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

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