Gemini 3.0 Prop Bets
21
1.2káš1554Dec 31
90%
new SOTA at FrontierMath Tier 4 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)
68%
new SOTA at FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)
67%
>=70% SWE-bench Verified (Bash only, per swebench.com)
64%
2M+ context window on Gemini 3.0 Pro
56%
Gemini app tops App Store (#1) within 1 month of Gemini 3 release
50%
new SOTA at MMLU
48%
DeepThink version released within 2 months of Gemini 3.0 Pro release
37%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released before Gemini 3.0 Pro (includes experimental versions)
30%
Gemini 3.0 Pro METR time horizon of 3 hours or more
23%
DeepThink version of model released alongside Gemini 3.0 Pro
16%
native image-out capabilities on launch
14%
Gemini 3.0 Ultra announced in main Gemini 3.0 announcement
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