Gemini 3.0 Prop Bets
49
1.7kṀ10k
Dec 31
86%
DeepThink version released within 2 months of Gemini 3.0 Pro release
50%
Gemini 3.0 Pro METR time horizon of 3 hours or more
41%
Gemini app tops App Store (#1) within 1 month of Gemini 3 release
Resolved
YES
new SOTA at MMLU
Resolved
YES
new SOTA at FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)
Resolved
YES
new SOTA at FrontierMath Tier 4 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)
Resolved
YES
>=70% SWE-bench Verified (Bash only, per swebench.com)

  • Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "DeepThink version of model released alongside Gemini 3.0 Pro":

    • "Alongside" means available to the public within a few hours of each other

    • If no sight of DeepThink to users by the day after Gemini 3.0 Pro release, this will resolve NO

    • May resolve N/A if ambiguous

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@Bayesian Safety report is out, https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_3_pro_fsf_report.pdf

Does page count span multiple reports?

@Bayesian What does "alongside" mean here? It wasn't released at the same time. Can this potentially resolve Yes later, or does it resolve No now?

sold Ṁ123 YES

@Haiku hmmm i'm not sure, maybe that they are available to the public within a few hours of each other? i might resolve this N/A if it's ambiguous, but if no sight of deepthink to users by tomorrow i think it's fair to resolve it NO?

bought Ṁ240 NO
boughtṀ75 YES

@ItsMe wanna bet more

no thanks

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy