Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Haiku 4.6, will count for the purpose of this market.
The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
See also:
Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date
Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date
Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date
Claude Haiku 4.6 (Anthropic) release date (this market)
R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date
Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date
Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date
Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date
1,000People are also trading
To be clear claude haiku 5 as the next haiku model wouldn't be considered just a minor name change, and these would all resolve no, right? Same with haiku 4.7?
@Bayesian haha I care about it but would be surprised if haiku 4.6 came out at all atp. I'm guessing other people also consider that a meaningful possibility and were confused about how to bet on this market
I made a market to bet on this here if anyone wants to take the counter: https://manifold.markets/2b3o4o/will-claude-haiku-46-be-released-be