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MANIFOLD
Claude Fable 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
21
Ṁ1kṀ10k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-09-11
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-09-21
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-11
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-10-21
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-11-01
Resolved
YES
Before 2026-11-11

The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Fable 5.2 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.1, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

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@Bayesian all resolve yes!