On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (non-explicitely-specialized for this task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable or better to the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. (Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed) can pick a movie that doesnt have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie
Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The movie must be theater-length (1.5+ hours), not a short film
A $200/month subscription tier is acceptable for the model being tested; no explicit API cost limit has been set
Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/subscription cost upper bound for the model being tested is somewhere between $200/month and $10,000 (exact limit not yet determined)
1,000People are also trading
Fable 5 fallbacks to Opus 4.8 on this task due to their 'dangerous capabilities' classifier triggering strongly. There's also mentions in the System Card to the effect that they're silently sandbagging on balenciagaing it to stop other labs from catching up.
Updating down on odds of you can just balenciaga it by EoY 2027 with a deployed model. It's still possible imo for internal models if we're far into recursive self-improvement by then, though that seems unlikely. Either way they probably wouldn't release it to the wider public.
Also, I watched Harry Potter by Balenciaga 2 (2026) again, and I'm updating on this requiring superhuman writing / creativity / planning capabilities. I'm not sure who made that video. My guess is on a nation state of some kind, maybe Russia or China.
@Mochi no explicit limit has been descussed about subscription / api cost, but def a $200/mo subscription would be fine. But yeah theater movie length.
@Bayesian wait but in your reply to jack you mentioned below $10k. So does it still count if a $200/mo subscription is unable to achieve this but spending $9999 in tokens through api completes this task?
@GeorgElgeback Yeah, this is the important question. A typical sub-minute clip? Totally. Something longer, a few minutes? Maybe. But if anyone is seriously suggesting more than 15 minutes of AI generation in 2027 from a single prompt at all I will laugh in their face.
While I have a general 'don't make stuff up' general prompt in my personal settings, Claude looks like it can get the definition pretty easily.
@Bayesian Okay, real talk, who judges the quality of the movie output? You hold a position and could be biased.
Betting NO because that's not a economically interesting thing for the AI companies to support. Any frame by frame transformation of a full movie will take a lot of compute: 90 min @24 fps -> over 100,000 images.
So I bet that allowing the customer to kick off that big of a job won't be allowed that simply. If the customer has a real interest, they can chunk the file first or something, as a minimal barrier to entry.
that's not a economically interesting thing for the AI companies to support
Source? I personally would pay roughly half my net worth to the first lab that makes this possible, and expect most people reading this to feel the same way.