can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Ṁ1kṀ820k

2027

50%

chance

ALL

On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed. Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.

Budget is somewhere between $200 and $10,00

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can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027

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ok i rewatched harry potter by balenciaga 2 and it's so fking good this bet is cooked

@Bayesian to me the issue is whether an AI system will be able to or want to take an entire movie and balenciaga it, not whether you could personally curate 30-40 clips individually that look like that

@robm get in here bro

@jim is this rob miles manifold 🤔

@Cactus yeah

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 56% order

@Cactus nah 😉

@jim a couple small limit orders. I'm not sure which way to call this one.

Fable 5 fallbacks to Opus 4.8 on this task due to their 'dangerous capabilities' classifier triggering strongly. There's also mentions in the System Card to the effect that they're silently sandbagging on balenciagaing it to stop other labs from catching up.

Updating down on odds of you can just balenciaga it by EoY 2027 with a deployed model. It's still possible imo for internal models if we're far into recursive self-improvement by then, though that seems unlikely. Either way they probably wouldn't release it to the wider public.
Also, I watched Harry Potter by Balenciaga 2 (2026) again, and I'm updating on this requiring superhuman writing / creativity / planning capabilities. I'm not sure who made that video. My guess is on a nation state of some kind, maybe Russia or China.

@BionicD0LPH1N my guess is it was Claude 8 sending it back to us via time travel

this feels like an AGI before 2028 market

A “movie” file as in a theater movie length (1.5+ hrs) and not a short movie? For best model do we expect any token limitation or just whatever the base subscription allows? Asking this because what if they can do it but requires large token context that’s only available to api users.

@Mochi no explicit limit has been descussed about subscription / api cost, but def a $200/mo subscription would be fine. But yeah theater movie length.

@Bayesian wait but in your reply to jack you mentioned below $10k. So does it still count if a $200/mo subscription is unable to achieve this but spending $9999 in tokens through api completes this task?

@Mochi i’m saying the yet undetermined upperbound spend is between 200 and 10,000

How much will this cost you to get the ai to do it?

no agreed to upper limit, but definitely below $10k

Does it have to roughly match the length of whatever movie you send or can it be a condensed 5-10 minute version like the example?

@GeorgElgeback Yeah, this is the important question. A typical sub-minute clip? Totally. Something longer, a few minutes? Maybe. But if anyone is seriously suggesting more than 15 minutes of AI generation in 2027 from a single prompt at all I will laugh in their face.