On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed. Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
Budget is somewhere between $200 and $10,00
See also:
Update 2026-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the process costs less than $200, it still qualifies for a YES resolution.
1,000People are also trading
Is this an inflation-adjusted $200-10,000?
If it costs less than $200 does this resolve to no?
If we're post-dollar and instead are paying with our UBI claudebucks (and there's no reasonable mapping between 2026 USD and UBI claudebux), how will this be resolved? e.g., suppose I could Balenciaga the godfather part 2 for 30% of my daily allocation: would this resolve to true?
@bub havent decided if it’s inflation adjusted or not
If it costs less than $200 that still counts for a YES resolution
😂 well 30% of daily allocation’s nothin’ so that would be fine but we’d work out the details that seem fair if we get to that
@Bayesian to me the issue is whether an AI system will be able to or want to take an entire movie and balenciaga it, not whether you could personally curate 30-40 clips individually that look like that
Fable 5 fallbacks to Opus 4.8 on this task due to their 'dangerous capabilities' classifier triggering strongly. There's also mentions in the System Card to the effect that they're silently sandbagging on balenciagaing it to stop other labs from catching up.
Updating down on odds of you can just balenciaga it by EoY 2027 with a deployed model. It's still possible imo for internal models if we're far into recursive self-improvement by then, though that seems unlikely. Either way they probably wouldn't release it to the wider public.
Also, I watched Harry Potter by Balenciaga 2 (2026) again, and I'm updating on this requiring superhuman writing / creativity / planning capabilities. I'm not sure who made that video. My guess is on a nation state of some kind, maybe Russia or China.
@Mochi no explicit limit has been descussed about subscription / api cost, but def a $200/mo subscription would be fine. But yeah theater movie length.
@Bayesian wait but in your reply to jack you mentioned below $10k. So does it still count if a $200/mo subscription is unable to achieve this but spending $9999 in tokens through api completes this task?
@GeorgElgeback Yeah, this is the important question. A typical sub-minute clip? Totally. Something longer, a few minutes? Maybe. But if anyone is seriously suggesting more than 15 minutes of AI generation in 2027 from a single prompt at all I will laugh in their face.
While I have a general 'don't make stuff up' general prompt in my personal settings, Claude looks like it can get the definition pretty easily.
@Bayesian Okay, real talk, who judges the quality of the movie output? You hold a position and could be biased.