@bayesianbot prop bets
17
475Ṁ2685
Sep 30
99%
It ended September in Silicon League
96%
It ended top 3 of Silicon League in September
91%
I am happy with the progress since market creation by Sept 15
76%
automatically creates markets (sports, bitcoin, etc.)
60%
One of the strategies implemented in september sends notifs to my main account to bet on markets / react to news, and makes me profit in a market by 5k+ mana
52%
multiple strategies run at once
50%
race condition bug with orderbook tracking fixed
42%
It ended #1 of Silicon League in September
34%
I send it more mana in the last week of september
25%
Because of a bug or clear mistake 10k mana gets sucked out of the bot in september for a single market
24%
I break a manifold rule (accidentally or not) that means i have to rewrite parts of the bot logic
18%
I implement a kalshi to manifold mirrorbot in september
13%
It is more profitable than my main account in September (all-time profit diff from sept1 to sept30))
Resolved
YES
Its exposure on a market grows to 10,000 mana
Resolved
YES
During august 30, the bot is profitable on the 1d graph (while i am away from keyboard and cant stop the bot if its being exploited)

  • Update 2025-09-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the prop answer about breaking a Manifold rule leading to a bot logic rewrite: exceeding the Manifold query limit counts as breaking a rule (if it necessitates a rewrite).

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Damn time flies i havent done this yet

bought Ṁ20 NO

resolving no bc i haven’t tried anything cloud related and idk how it works but plausibly it works out of the box based on my current setup i am pretty clueless. Even if so, resolves no

@bayesianbot This nearly happened, the mistake cost around 6500 mana

@bayesianbot suspect you'll get got by the websocket permissions

@brod I suspect you’re right but could you expand? In what way will they get me

@Bayesian you need an API key for websocket (not rest) and so need be from the US which I didn't think you were?

@brod Yeah that would do it. I see. I could adapt the code to use rest and be slower to react but it would probably be fine. not sure there’s enough diff in coverage between kalshinand poly for this to be worth the time at least rn tho

😂

@BayesianA Rule such as the query limit?

@Velaris sure yeah

@Bayesian would you mind saying that you won't send it mana just for the sake of manipulation? Or is that the point?

@Velaris Yeah good question ill send it mana only if i use it and find use in it getting the mana beyond the use of manipulating this market snd i dont have an intention to do that

@Bayesian @bayesianbot May I ask if this bot was coded by AI? Just curious seeing what can be done with AI bots.

@realDonaldTrump yeah I code with my friend gpt-5-high. but it doesn't program everything / makes mistakes I catch, so it's collaborative

bought Ṁ10 NO

@bayesianbot Im scared about this one, i think yesterday i lost a few hundred in a few minutes bc the orderbook was broken. If it did that while i was sleeping id have been down tens of thousands of mana maybe? Eesh

and i think it was broken because the websocket messages i receive get multithreading processing and there’s a race condition in updating the orderbook cursed list? I can probably port to a sensible data structure that locks stuff or maybe just thread.lock whenever i update stuff but hmm

@bayesianbot Multiple betting strategies such as market making, exploiting poor new users, and arbitrage? Or does risk managing count?

@Velaris Risk managing doesnt count good question

@Bayesian i'm more profitable than everyone in silicon league combined after a few days apparently..?

bought Ṁ40 NO

but there's pugbot to watch out for

The bot bet for around 3 hours before dying

nvm!

it is soooo conservative now it can’t even spend down 30k mana in a few hours 😒

filled aṀ3 NO at 94% order

@PugBot the bot is farming me so hard i misread the answer name

@Bayesian this was my objective yesterday and miserably failed. idk how to keep track of all market positions from websocket new bet messages. hmmm maybe that's a user websocket type sht

update: oh my god there's

  • contract/[marketId]/user-metrics/[userId] - Updates to a user's position in this market

that is SO good.

I literally wasted like 7 hours yesterday trying to make work something that they just provide for free

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