MANIFOLD
'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date
3
Ṁ250Ṁ540
Dec 1
4%
Before March 2026
25%
Before April 2026
41%
Before May 2026
72%
Before June 2026
83%
Before July 2026
84%
Before August 2026
87%
Before September 2026
87%
Before October 2026
91%
Before November 2026
97%
Before December 2026

This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Avocado'. Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Avocado', 'Llama 5', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date (this market)

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@Bayesian want to do volume on before may at like 45%?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy