ASI when? and What Civilization in year 3000?

560Ṁ198

3000

ASI before 2100, mundane civ in 3000

33%

ASI before 2100, utopia civ in 3000

ASI before 2100, suffering dystopia in 3000

34%

ASI before 2100, doom in 3000

ASI after 2100 and before 3000, mundane civ in 3000

ASI after 2100 and before 3000, utopia civ in 3000

ASI after 2100 and before 3000, suffering dystopia in 3000

ASI after 2100 and before 3000, doom in 3000

no ASI before 3000, mundane civ in 3000

no ASI before 3000, utopia civ in 3000

no ASI before 3000, suffering dystopia in 3000

no ASI before 3000, doom in 3000

1) When will ASI be created?
2) What will be the state of human civilization in the year 3000?

combined, to express various conditional probabilities.

This question is not meant to resolve for centuries, and is not very precise, so I recommend treating this more like a Stonk-type question than an epistemic market. nonetheless, it might strike relevant and important conversations.

Some terms:
ASI: Artificial superintelligence. vastly outstrips human intelligence, in scale, depth, generality. outstrips collective human intelligence (corporations, nations).

Doom: every human consciousness / awareness ends, forever, with no reasonable hope of reversal.

Utopia: Vastly improved quality of life for all humans everywhere, larger civilization, eliminated unnecessary suffering, unnecessary evil, etc. and enables great freedom and all that. the good outcome, according to almost all humans.

Suffering Dystopia: Humans aren't extinct, but it's a really really bad experience for all involved. The average human experience is worse than that of the average slave in history.
Non-Utopia Technological:
Mundane: Anything that isn't Doom, Utopia, or Suffering Dystopia. You might keep your 9to5, or something completely different happens,

Technology

OpenAI Sora

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we get ASI before 2035?

50% chance

Will we get ASI before 2030?

23% chance

Will we get ASI before 2036?

69% chance

Will we get ASI before 2033?

44% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3000?

45% chance

Will an AI-conducted archaeological analysis uncover a previously unknown civilization by 2030?

18% chance

Will we get ASI before 2034?

47% chance

Will we get ASI before 2031?

31% chance

Will we get ASI before 2032?

36% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

Sort by:

Timothy Scriven boughtṀ10 NO

I would take 100:1 odds against the proposal that civilization in 3000 AD will be mundane. Our own civilization would rightly be called a utopia by those who came before it. Either it will be heaven or hell, the technological capabilities of such a civilization allow for no middle way.

I don't think our civilization would rightly be called a utopia by those who came before it

and to be clear, impressive tech that doesn't make people radically happier or better off (like our tech compared to ppl in the past) would not count as utopia for the purpose of this question

@Bayesian whether judged on:

1. Life expectancy and mortality
2. Disease pain and physical suffering
3. Peacefulness
4. Material Abundance and working hours

Our civilization is a utopia compared to, say, 1500s England. As best we can tell it is probably even a utopia with respect to total subjective well-being. I'm a huge critic of modern societies, but it would be better to be at the 20th percentile of material wellbeing today, than in the 99th percentile in most post-agricultural societies that have ever been.

Edit: It's worth expanding on the subjective well-being point. At least if we extrapolate from differences between existing societies today, e.g. between third-world and first-world societies, it seems likely that contemporary people in first-world societies are radically happier.

@TimothyScriven no, it is much better, not a utopia. as best as we can tell it is not a utopia with respect to total subjective well-being, which is what matters. I agree about material availability, which is why i was explaining that this question asks about subjective well-being. material well-being will more predictably go up; but will subjective well-being? will unnecessary suffering be eliminated? you'll agree it hasn't so far

By a standard which requires unnecessary suffering to be eliminated in order for a society to count as a utopia, most fictional depictions of utopia are not utopias. This is a very high bar for utopia.