Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking major cryptocurrency exchanges or price tracking services such as CoinDesk, Coinbase, or CoinMarketCap. The price only needs to touch $100,000 once during this period; it does not need to close above this level. If Bitcoin never reaches $100,000 before the deadline, the market resolves NO.

Background

Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,038 as of February 21, 2026, meaning it would need to gain approximately 47% to reach $100,000. Bitcoin's all-time high is $126,210.50, which was reached on October 6, 2025, demonstrating the asset has already exceeded the $100,000 threshold this cycle. Industry executives and investors forecast a wide range of prices for bitcoin in 2026, dropping as low as $75,000 and rising as high as $225,000. James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset manager CoinShares, expects to see bitcoin in a range of between $120,000 and $170,000 in 2026, with "more constructive price action likely occurring in the second half of the year."

Considerations

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in early 2026, declining from its October 2025 peak. BTC trades around $68,000, roughly 20% below the estimated average production cost of $87,000, which historically has preceded price recoveries as weaker miners exit the market. The timeframe extends through June 30, 2026—approximately 4.5 months—providing a window that includes the second half of the year when some analysts expect stronger price action.

This description was generated by AI.