Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Tesla Roadster hover (all 4 wheels off the ground under its own thrust) at a live demo by October 31, 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ95
Nov 5
70%
chance

Tesla has promised a "flying" Roadster demo since 2025. Musk first said it would come by end of 2025, then April 1, 2026, then late April, then "maybe in a month or so," then August, then October 1, 2026. On September 28, 2026, Tesla posted on X: "given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we've made the difficult decision to reschedule. New date is October 15." The event is at SpaceX's McGregor test site near Waco, TX. The plan is a SpaceX developed cold gas thruster package that makes the car hover. Musk said Tesla needs "an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI." Resolves YES if, between market creation and 11:59 PM US Central Time on October 31, 2026, Tesla holds a live demonstration (in person, officially livestreamed, or both) where a Tesla Roadster (any variant, including a remotely operated or non street legal thruster version) lifts completely off the ground. All four tires must visibly clear the surface, and the lift must come from the vehicle's own onboard propulsion (thrusters, fans, or similar). The liftoff must be shown in official Tesla or Musk footage of the live event, or reported as having happened by at least one major outlet (for example Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, TechCrunch, Electrek, The Verge, or CNBC). Resolves NO if any of the following is true by that deadline: 1. The event does not happen (including another postponement past October 31, 2026). 2. The event happens but the car does not leave the ground. 3. The only "flight" is a jump off a ramp, a lift by crane, tether, cable, or other external support, a computer rendering, or a pre recorded video that is not a live demonstration. 4. The only thruster use is for acceleration or a partial lift where some wheels stay on the ground. Brief hovers count. There is no minimum height or duration beyond all four wheels visibly clearing the ground. A tether used only as a safety restraint, one that is not holding the car up, does not disqualify. RESOLUTION DEADLINE: October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM US Central Time. If the event happens but reports conflict, the creator will review the official livestream and footage and resolve by November 3, 2026.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

Nitpick: Does the ramp disqualify it because of the drop in height from removing a support? Because a drop in height could also occur if the thrusters are aided by rapidly contracting shock absorbers (pneumatic/hydraulic).