Will I stay alive through November?
Mini
31
7.0k
resolved Dec 3
Resolved
YES

I will resolve this market as YES if I am still able to access the site (1 week) after trading halt

If I don't come back after 1 week mods please resolve no.

I'll bet on yes, hopefully no one comes and assasinate me.

More info: I'm young and studying at college, healthy diet, no drugs, alcohol or things similar. I move around mainly with the bus so pretty safe. I also have good internet connection so I can access the site at any time.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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predicted YES

Still goin strong

bought Ṁ50 YES at 98.7%
bought Ṁ10 NO

Good luck

predicted YES

@IrateMonk hope you don't know where i live

Age, sex, nationality? I want to look up an actuary table.

predicted YES

@Gabe 19 male vietnamese. I’ll also be extra careful during november

@BanhMiChuoi Aight, turns out you have a roughly 0.1% chance of death. I'd bid higher but there's not enough liquidity in the market to make it worthwhile, sadly.

predicted YES

@Gabe I’ll still have to be careful because someone bet on no

predicted YES

@BanhMiChuoi Actually I forgot that the actuary table is by year, so you really have a roughly 0.01% chance of death. You can afford to be a little less careful, especially if it adds some extra liquidity to the market.

Go do things that sound dangerous but in reality are quite safe, or things that cause significant harm but only over long time horizons. Maybe pick up a cigarette habit?

predicted NO

@Gabe The greater risk with this market is the resolution criteria. Despite the question being whether they'll die, the real question is "Will a teenager forget for a week about the website they've been posting on?". I think a few percent for that makes sense. Life can happen and get in the way, emails to resolve markets can get missed, passwords forgotten etc..

predicted YES

@c0m To be honest, that may be the more appropriate question.

But I’m still here

Wish me good luck

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 98.8% to 99.3%